Justify: Triple Crown or Big Brown? Will Justify win the Belmont and the Triple Crown on Saturday? There are a ton of questions which will be answered soon. I’ve been watching and wagering on horses for a long time. I wrote a well regarded book about it. I grew up in the exciting times of the 1970’s where we had Triple Crown winners: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. It seemed routine until we had a gap until 2015 when American Pharoah cruised to the elusive Triple. I won’t list why it is hard to win, but I’ll tell you how I’ve seen it in the recent past and once where I was humiliated (like many others) by disregarding facts hoping for a fantasy.
Horses in recent times that have tried for the Triple Crown have faced triumph (Pharoah), frustration (Real Quiet’s nose loss in 1998), and semi-tragedy (Big Brown did not finish in 2008 and Charismatic third in 1999 who pulled up after race). Some other horses just weren’t good enough to go the demanding mile and one half (Smarty Jones second in 2004 and California Chrome fourth in 2014). In the 2008 race I bought into the hype and lies put forth about Big Brown that his quarter crack in his hoof was repaired and he was ready to go. I have been around this game a long time and as he was pulled up and didn’t finish I knew I (and a lot of other bettors) had been had by a trainer who ran an injured horse held together by bailing wire and wishes.
I was awfully tired of hearing how todays horses were not as sound because of “Speed Breeding” until Pharoah won. In the 1940’s there were 4 Triple Crown winners including the great Citation who ran and won in the Jersey Stakes BETWEEN the Preakness and the Belmont. It takes a special horse to win the Triple Crown–It’s supposed to! Note a small non statistical pattern– 4 Triple Crown winners in the 1940’s, 3 Triple Crown winners in the 1970’s–How about 2 Triple Crown winners 20Teens.
I’m not saying it will be easy for Justify. Yet, if I might justify Justify (pardon the redundancy), who’s going to beat him? Sure maybe he can’t go the distance, but little says his competitors can. He can run in wet conditions (Derby and Preakness) and he’s speedy enough that he won’t likely be running from way back which very rarely works in the Belmont.
What am I going to play? I’ll take a shot both ways–I’ll key Justify in some pick 4’s, and I’ll play some ALLs in the Belmont in doubles. Good luck.
